The Northeast Weather Blog...

0.1 in last night. Storms are headed NE to our north and south but look like not much OH. Winds were nice last night.

last night 0.78" of rain. hopefully, this will bring back the grass with the past week of rain and get the ground back to a bit softer, not hard as a rock.

Pcroton - I hear what you are saying. That has to be a very difficult forecast for any meteorologist.

Quoting goofyrider:
0.1 in last night. Storms are headed NE to our north and south but look like not much OH. Winds were nice last night.

Looks like a pretty nice blowup near PT Pleasant this morning. Lingering at that. Flow seems to be trying to work northward. It would be nice if the convection followed.

Big forecast but thus far the radar isn't supporting it.

We shall see....



TRP, yep, weather is dynamic enough as it is....in such a variable geographic location such as mine with all these little micro-climates going on it's really difficult to predict - especially the scattered shower patterns.

that would be more in line with what we are seeing
thx for the update

locally am seeing signs of precip increase
just not on the scale of the forecast wording

Blizzbot, any thoughts on Monday's FroPa?

We finally got some rain - .26 inches so far. It's delightfully cool and really nice to have the air conditioning off for a change.

I think we got about a half inch last night. Well received!

Today just some sprinkles so far, and per Zack's (can I call you Zack?) comment on the guidance, not much on the radar.

Had so far today 0.82" of rain, may get alittle more. It was good because it was spread out over many hours. LT Stamford CT.- Going out to Citi Field on Sat. supposed to clear up by noon, and be 75-80F. That will be nice. Mets playing the Dodgers.

Hi there. Posting for the first time because I've got a question you all may be able to help with. I hope I'm asking in the right place. I live in a town outside of Boston that just experienced its 2nd, highly damaging microburst in 2 years. While two does not a pattern make, I'm starting to wonder if there are topographical or meteorological factors that make us more included to see microbursts than our neighbors. I searched around online but the best I could find was that they are associated with thunderstorms, which wasn't very helpful. We seem to get the same amount as any area around us. Could there be other factors?

Thanks,

Caseous

0.83 in precip today. Showers with early lightning. Ocean wss very rough. 4-5 ctf seas at 4-sec

Post #311, maybe Blizz or another person on here could answer you, but what exact city or town are you in, in Mass. That may help them.

I'm in Arlington, MA

Central and Eastern Massachusettes is actually known as an area that has it's own mini "tornado alley" and is no stranger to stronger storms than it's surrounding areas. It's one of the only regions in the North East US that can experience storms that have spawned F2's to F4's even if I am not mistaken - while the rest of the region generally will experience the occasional F0-F1 and very rare F2.




Meanwhile the cooler temps have been wonderful. Thursday beach day was great. Friday's showery mid 60s was great. Today has been perfect. Haven't had the A/C on for days and don't anticipate putting it back on until late Monday morning.

Looks like another decent shot at some storms Sunday PM-Monday PM.

Not liking the return of 88-92F type temps though.

forecasts have backed off considerably regarding this next event
the window has also shrunk to a midnight to monday eve time frame
i wonder if this means we will all get whacked instead. lol

Hi Everyone! Long time gone from this blog. Environmental allergies kicking up a storm. It's been so humid I guess it's all the mold spores just hanging suspended in the still air. Summer has a smell. It's heavy and musky. Reminds me of my childhood catching grasshoppers in a jar down Georgia way. Fireflies have gone. Crickets and cecadas have moved in and loudly let us know they're here.The robins are busy at their insect buffet. Foliage has maxed out and dead leaves are falling. Summer is moving along. Thoughts starting to turn to fall for some relief but summer living is easy and sweet so feelings are mixed.

Mad storms came in this week. Flash flooding on Friday closed major roadways. It doesn't rain much here in late July but when it does, watch out!

Hope all is well.

Pitss.nurse, hope you are feeling better. Brilliant sunshine here in Sw CT. this morning, but I see on Blizz's supplied Sat. photo that you guys in the LSV are under some clouds, but no showers yet. Hope everyone has a good Sunday.

I don't want to speak too soon, because a couple weeks of 95+ could dry us out again, but yesterday's persistent showers pretty much broke the summer drought in my immediate areas (College Park, Beltsville, Greenbelt MD area). We had some heavy downpours and lighter showers almost all day long -- every time the radar make it look like they'd move off, the showers would redevelop right over top of us. Our trees weren't suffering before, but it was just on the cusp of not enough rain. Now I think we're set for the summer hopefully. Great to get soaking rain in mid July!

Hi bwi. I think the official terms would be "improvement" via drought monitor and I would agree with that.

Meanwhile tonight and tomorrow...they continue to remove wording for the forecast. Now nothing overnight and we're just looking at late afternoon scattered showers and storms. 30%.

Quite a far cry from the 30 hour window of 60% showers-storms soakers.... down to a 6 hour window of scattered.

Hit 87F today, forecast was 80. Yet the AC stayed off...just closed windows until the sea breeze kicked in.

Not sure why forecasting has been so difficult in such a seemingly bland and stagnant pattern but - apparently it has been.

The way I see it - it has been going on all season long - wording leads you to believe the pattern/drought buster is here - and it just all goes up in smoke time and again. When you're locked in these types of season long patterns that's when logic should dictate forecasting and not computer models.

If the last one dried up entering your region you can bet the next one will as well.

Know when we know the true changes are here? When you awake to Northern Michigan being in the 40s behind the front and it's still in the 80s here with Thunderstorms in the forecast.

That, or one of those fantastic August nor-easters.

I was down in Atlantic County, NJ today...place that was hard hit by the derecho a few weeks ago. Large trees uprooted, plenty that still have not been cleaned up. Saw a lot of trees that were also totally defoliated, and a few houses with torn shingles. Such a shame really.

And once again nobody can make up their minds. I suppose make every and any forecast possible over the course of two days, one will pan out, and they can feel like they got it done.

Reason for rant? Language for this afternoon once again ramped back up --- to where they had it two days ago. Gusty winds, heavy rain, etc.

You know....after what we've seen time and again over this summer... I will believe it when I see it. My faith in forecasting has been reduced to near zero hour. Not 72, not 24, not even 3. 0 hour.

It's warm, it's humid, but the triggering mechanisms have been poorly forecast time and again. What's to say they got it right this time.

I will say there is one forecaster who did a recent discussion and boldly laid out the fact that they (meaning he) could not properly forecast the triggering mechanism for a particular event about a week ago and he left the door wide open for uncertainty ranging from a severe thunderstorm to partly cloudy for any given person in the forecast area. So at least someone is willing to divulge such information.

Quoting wxgeek723:
I was down in Atlantic County, NJ today...place that was hard hit by the derecho a few weeks ago. Large trees uprooted, plenty that still have not been cleaned up. Saw a lot of trees that were also totally defoliated, and a few houses with torn shingles. Such a shame really.

That was the one that claimed the two young campers' lives when a tree came down on their tent.

I think that system marched from Ohio through NJ and believe it was responsible for 17 deaths.

I forget what the Maryland one tallied.

We've had some enormous death tolls from these systems this summer. It has really been out of the norm, yet, as we all know in this region, we do have those "once in a decade" scenarios where we are laid to waste just like any other part of the country that is no stranger to severe weather such as that.

The oddity is to have SEVERAL such events all in one season. Yet, before conclusions are drawn, we all must remember we are in a very dynamic region in regards to weather. We have a lot of extremes between flood and drought and blizzard and calm and heat and cold. Although it tends to be a 2 year on 5 year off type of thing...we've gotten the back to backs before or longer stretches of either calm or stormy.

It's been a bad season and it will be nice when it draws to a close. Unfortunately it may end in a widespread damaging event.....the summer back breaker.

History serves it is due in anywhere from 2 to 4 weeks. August 7- August 21 is the time frame..it is one of the few things we can tend to set our watches to so to speak in this region.

Interesting discussion by you P. Right now a good size thunderstorm complex is just scraping by me to my N and NE. Looks like it originated in the Catskills and slid over towards the Hudson Valley, then into CT. mostly JUST N of me. as it moves southeastwards, by I am getting some rain and thunder off in the distance to my NNE. LT Stamford CT.

Rain just really picked up, coming down hard now, but should not last too long.

I'm with you, P. We had one batch of rain and it's been overcast, humid and dry since then. Forecast has been 50 - 60% chance for days, and nothing. Looks like rain, feels like rain, and then nothing. Must be a very difficult forecast to make.

Good to hear from you, Pittsburgh Nurse. And congrats on your rain, LT.

We had some pretty decent storms this morning laid down about 1.25" and the next ones rolling in now. Still haven't found out if the NWS ever ruled anything out over by here but i went exploring and i found several tin roofs that were peeled back by the wind and i snapped up some photos that i'll upload at some point.

Hi LT, good to see ya. I was watching that earlier batch today and wondered if it would slip into your region or not.

It appears what is left behind is a bit washed out and a scattered threat along that boundary. We will see what it does as it sags southward through the day. Unfortunately you may have seen your chances go down due to the earlier complex.


Philly, yep, we're just on the same page with that one. It would appear they have trouble forecasting the triggers both in intensity and location over the past few weeks.

While that can be difficult I think they are not doing a good job with the wording in the local products. Either jumping the gun or waiting until it is too late to change their wording.

Those of us who frequent this blog have the ability to look beyond the local products and understand the technical discussions - the general public does not - and one can easily understand why weather forecasting is easily the most mocked career the world over.

Agreed again, P. I wish it would be okay for the mainstream forecasters to say "we don't know" more often, and to not have to make it seem exciting and dramatic when it's not. We can do that in the technical conversations, with discussion of the factors involved and then each person comes to their own forecast, really. That's what I love about the blog!

Yep.

Meanwhile the cluster that was in NE PA has spent all late morning and early afternoon migrating into NW NJ. Saw some dbz topping 68 earlier now down to 62-63.

Whether or not this cluster migrates southward or translates/redevelops a few times as it moves southward - is unknown for those of us in Central NJ and southward.

Impossible to forecast. I will say if you see sudden redevelopment jumps southward with it then it has a chance. If it is to just continue migrating southward as is then it is less likely to make it.

Meanwhile a sea breeze has attempted to touch off some local mischief. I have some nice mini towers and dark clouds- and a cell did pop about 10 miles off shore. Generally speaking these isolated events are also an unknown.


...Just gotta watch and hope I suppose. Still haven't put the A/C back on despite it hitting 90F with 60% humidity. Just stubborn...and tired of hearing the thing.

Well this is interesting....went looking to see if an MD was set up for the persistent cluster - and instead found a much earlier MD covering a broad area.

====

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA INTO MUCH OF NY...VT...WRN MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231632Z - 231800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WHERE STRONG HEATING WAS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE CU WAS
FOCUSED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NY INTO
CNTRL/ERN PA. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG EXISTS WITH DECENT
PARCEL ACCELERATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS MARGINAL SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/23/2012

P, seeing that T.Storm in NE NJ moving SE but I think it will miss you, hope I'm wrong!

Looking more closley at the cell it is moving more due South than SE, so it may pass you to the West.

seems to be hopping around some
not sure what to expect
thinking a lot of rapid collapse and redevelopment within clustet
some times redevelopment occurs on boundaries and is ver rapid
can cause cluster to jump 10-20 miles if you will
plays tricks on you
no tracking this as continuous entity

I think you are right P, now it seems to be "bubbling" or moving more SE again. The sun has broken out again here in SW CT. Temp. has jumped up to 85F. Baro. falling at 29.90". Very light NE to SE winds.

Some nice heavy rain/thunder in the Camp Hill area and a decent rain but that was about it. I hope this isn't the only chance we get tonight!

Seems like are chance for stronger storms here in western pa, looks to be on the decrease. Nothing formed here, despite the wording from last night and this morning.. heres the latest discussion...

PITTSBURGH AREA
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKY HAS CLEARED IN WAKE OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT NOW RESIDES
IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE ATMOSPHERE DESPITE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS MUCH OF THE MORNING IS STILL MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE
HODOGRAPHS AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOIC PARAMETERS GREATER THAN
ONE...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOT PREDICTED TO CROSS UNTIL
DUSK...PROB OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATLY DIMINISHING.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC MODELS SAVE FOR HRRR
ILLUSTRATE DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING...WHILE HRRR
PORTRAYS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CLARION TO DUBOIS
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH PRIOR TO 0Z. WE ARE MONITORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IL/IND ATT WHICH
WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN OHIO OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT ECNTRL
OHIO...PARTS OF NRN WV...AND SWRN PA AROUND DAYBREAK TUES.

and poof they go
the moment they extend the watch to include me the storms begin to wane
lol
thunder was good and increasing but has since stopped
may see redevel but running out of room
may occur to my south
couple more areas of interest are there tho so the plug of optimism wont yet be pulled

Fabulous massive thunderstorm ensuing overhead!!!

We lost power for about a minute, after the lights blinked a lot. Since it's still hot and humid here, it was a relief when the lights came back up immediately!

RIP Sally Ride. So sad. We met her during our home schooling years.
http://www.wptz.com/news/national/Sally-Ride-firs t-American-woman-in-space-dead-at-61/-/8869978/156 50502/-/us2v9g/-/index.html?absolute=true

She died at age 61 after a 17 month battle with pancreatic cancer. :-(

My brother-in-law is now age 62 and still waging a (so far) 19 month battle with pancreatic cancer. Rough.

Winter weather predictions for the Northeast? Particulary Washington D.C.?