Lesser Antilles may see a tropical storm late this week
A concentrated area of intense thunderstorms near 9N 36W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become more organized this morning. NHC has labeled this system Invest 91L, and is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 8am Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of 91L to potentially allow further development. The main negatives for development are the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, and the fact that 91L is too close to the Equator to take much advantage of the Earth's spin to get spinning. Last night's ASCAT pass of the region did show a large region of westerly winds south of 91L, indicating that a surface circulation is trying to form. Satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal extent of 91L's heavy thunderstorms is increasing. However, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are not apparent yet.
Forecast for 91L
There is strong model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all develop 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west to west-northwest motion is predicted, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm arriving in the islands as early as Thursday. It is possible that 91L would pass northeast of the islands, as predicted by the UKMET model, and it is too early to speculate on which of the islands is at most risk. As the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles late this week, 91L will encounter a strong upper-level low pressure system centered north of Puerto Rico. This upper-level low will likely bring high levels of wind shear to the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thus, if 91L stays to the south, in the Caribbean, it is far more likely to attain hurricane status than if it pushes north of the Caribbean. As always, long range forecasts of this sort are speculative, and it is too early to reliably say what the long-term risks of 91L becoming a hurricane are. The latest intensity forecast from the SHIPS model shows 91L peaking in strength four days from now, then weakening as it encounters the high wind shear area north of Puerto Rico.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yes or you would see the number AL042010 in the advisories posted by the NHC.
looks like the strongest winds are in its right flank Link
it will go from 91L to 04L
then
04L TD= TROPICAL DEPRESSION
04L TS= TROPICAL STORM (COLIN)
04L H= HURRICANE
then i get freaked out and go to a shelter
Can you repost that video?
Its getting closer :P
well, I guess no worries. It will be a fish....I wonder how many times this will change?
yup
nope, not yet hun. We still got days of cussin' and dis'cussin before we start talking shelters.
That would mean it's higher than thought. Good. =D.
Sorry about that last post...
But yeah, I was thinking Antigua area, looking at the high.
But all the models show north of that.
Have to wait on more development I guess.
I believe I address the slow movement near 2 minutes in.
i think they will
thats not good
YA killing me aussie,..
its 8:40PM here and
Current Conditions
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 23 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
92.0 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.6 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 102 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
That's an "Oops" right?
oh my, I understand that post! and no it's not good!
So I see!!!
You are enjoying this, aren't you, Orc?
:)
Does that mean East Coast Storm?
Hi Storm
No point going too far out in time. We know how quickly the unexpected can happen.
Long range issues such as the potential for the ridge to build back to the West are not out of the question. For now the high is centered way up there to the NE and allowing 91L to work around the SW quadrant. This pattern should hold thru Tuesday then we'll know more.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N58W TO 10N55W MOVING W NEAR 12
KT. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
WELL AS A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS
FORMED NEAR THE SRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS.
I know 91L looks better, but this one doesn't look too shabby either.
Wanr to trade????
Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -97.03 Elev: 560
Last Update on Aug 1, 7:53 pm CDT
Partly Cloudy
99 °F
(37 °C)
Humidity: 27 %
Wind Speed: S 9 MPH
Barometer: 29.82" (1008.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 59 °F (15 °C)
Heat Index: 99 °F (37 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Wat is it? :o
yes a better ch of one
Not even close! I was just posting the updated 00z plots. Lets wait till we get a real fix before we say anyones safe.
well, if that is the case. Then I expect to see a more shift to the left...
Maybe just a smidge... you did say you were growing mold in weird spots.
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