Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wow
Tonight is the night,is the night of fun.
Forever and ever is never enough
Forever and ever is never enough.
It's from a song on one of my old Dance mix CDs.
Great to see ya here Drak.
Why do you think that this year will be different? I noticed that whenever there is a huge high pressure area sitting over the S.E U.S that tends to block storms from entering the Gulf?
I've always kind of been here. :)
You're back! :D
Nice observation BTW.
And so true.
Retired DJ here, you know the song??
Not at all!
Hey everyone! Good to see you guys keeping things alive here
welcome back
You mean 91E.
Good to see you.
Welcome back Drak.
There's a difference between "DMIN" and diurnal pressure cycles. The former is what Hurry was talking about, with the air being the warmest during the day, decreasing the instability between the warm ocean surface and the atmosphere above.
Diurnal pressure cycles have a minimum pressure in the afternoon which is thought to be caused by solar heating and expansion of the upper atmosphere, which lowers the pressure at the surface during the height of the day. There is also a secondary diurnal cycle which has a pressure minimum just before sunrise.
Good to read you again Drak! BTW Gro...you can call me Mr. Tibbs.
All these impatient people in Florida and Texas and nearby states are going to have to wait your turns, I am sure your share has been ordered for later this season. This conglomeration is going to head north and its no doubt got a few brothers and sisters to follow!!
Oh, evening everybody!
That placement is correct and supported by the surface observations using NOAA's nowCOAST.
Where I live south of Houston, we have had only 1 day of rain (.20") in more than 3 months. That is why we are complaining.
Sorry I missed this but the only thing we got on Friday was "Lightning" no rain....
I do hope you got some today I know I did not get any as of yet, but it is Thundering to my East right now and hope it moves to the west....
Taco :o)
Every season has the potential to see deadly destruction. You mentioned Andrew...1992 was a very quiet season overall, yet one of the costliest in history. In general, I expect the U.S. is more prone to landfalls this season, certainly more so than last year, when everything avoided the United States.
You guys need it worse than we do (Fl). The national news a few weeks ago was reporting animals falling out of trees and dying because they had no water????
Besides tropical [thunder]storm Bonnie, but that was a typical rainy day in the sunshine state.
Serious question, it's very pronounced on the last couple of frames...
Check it again.
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