Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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As I say-today is the last chance for it.Little to no chances thereafter
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY""".....
Another recon canceled....my guess.
0-0-0.
$$
Lol.... lets just put it behind us.
Will it come to JAX as a Hurricane ? lol.
ABNT20 KNHC 061138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT MISSION HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
48 hour shear...look at the NW Caribbean....
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT MISSION HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
I'm going to join them.
See you all at breakfast. Presslord is fixin' it right now...
NC I brought that same thing up on here yesterday. Development of a system North of the Bahamas and sticking around for a few days. I think it may be something to watch out for tho its way to early to make any solid predictions.
Climate...
the high temperature at Houston reached 105 degrees on Sunday. This is the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June. The previous warmest June temperature was 104 degrees established on June 24th and June 26th 2009. The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th 1954. Records for the city of Houston date back to 1891 and there have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees.
4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000
New maximum temperature records (houston) have been established on four out of the first five days of June. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (june 5th) by seven...yes seven degrees.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SLOWLY
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE PROBABILITIES BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
I agree..its not like the GFS to hold onto a storm so far out..
Yes....I think the planet is warming. Is it reversible? Unlikely to me, but possible.
Looking at a water vapor of the GOM and western Caribbean. Easy to see the ULL in the western GOM. Time is running out on 94L. It'll wind up a sheared mess.
Yes we are desperate for rain right now
AL, 94, 2011060612, , BEST, 0, 177N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 125, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Getting there. Slowly...
Good morning, yes I think somehow you will get your rain soon.
OK,I'll try:) 94l has 0% chance for developing,or even less.Shear is to high for it
...so...It's gonna go somewhere between Matamoros and Liverpool?!
Pottery sounds idyllic. I can bring some Samsula watermelon :)
plenty of time to do what it wants
NHC discussion this morning said it will sit there until Wednesday when upper level winds become less favorable.
I don't think 94L has a say in the matter :)
THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
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