Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines
There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.
TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.
Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.
Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.
I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It seems it did the same thing yesterday, will probably be at 19N in an hour. LOL! XD
I would always get worried that there would be a hurricane on her birthday.
So we've definitely got plenty of time left. It's only Sept. 24th.
2011
TS Ophelia
TS Philippe
lol I hope no!!! Lol wanna get some rain from it ^-^
Plenty of heat generated storms over the southern half of Florida.
We've had several T storms today at my location.
Lol fail. Don, Irene, and Lee ring a bell?
Lucky you are!
Why is Don on the list? Didn't even bring rain.
I'll use the same thing for you...
---------------------------------------
Go away, before people jump you.
EDIT: Nevermind...Instead of wasting my time on you, I'll talk tropics and put you on ignore.
Everybody should do the same....Obviously.
I've been watching you--you are one clever cookie--smart, too!
Dude.... give it a rest. It's only got 30% on it for a reason. Try REASON instead of mere emotion.
I made it out ok, some serious tree damage and all but one of the avocado pears down. Southeastern and Central Bahamas had it MUCH worse; power out on 7 islands, extensive roof loss, flooding, and structural damage in 6 of those islands, and my grandmother's roof was blown off. Only lucky thing about Irene for the Bahamas was that the areas with the heaviest impacts are also the areas with our lowest population density. Sort of like the King Ranch area of coastal TX. If Irene had held to that more westerly track I'd still be off line today; damage in NP would have been massive. Fortunately we had no deaths here.
Respect other bloggers who are bashing the National Hurricane Center and calling Irene a piece of trash storm?
Uh...no.
I'm out, sick of this blog.
Totally uncalled for.
TA13, you do a great job and are open minded. Ignore when a few decide to gang up.
maybe cuz it is dark out there?
No, don't give up on the blog like many other have, just put the chicken brains on ignore. :)
DO I HAVE TO TEACH THE LESSON AGAIN TODAY?
Behavior that is reinforced WILL be repeated.
Behavior that is NOT reinforced will be extinguished.
In other words, DON'T FEED THE TROLLS.
Using the IGNORE button keeps you from seeing their posts, and you will not be tempted to respond!!!!!
Additionally calling storms that impacted the Caribbean, Bermuda and Canada "fish storms", or dismissing a cat 4/5 monster bearing down on the Phillipines because it is "thousands of miles away from the US" doesn't do much to impress me with a blogger's emotional maturity.
I notice P451 hasn't been allowed to return to the blog, and I can't say I know the reasoning for that. However, I have to give respect to that blogger because he was conscientious in attempting to support his concerns about below-forecast intensity storms by referring to the scientific evidence he had at hand. He didn't always agree with what NHC had to say about systems, either, but he disagreed in a REASONED manner, rather than simply emoting about it. I respect that.
Again, if you only are going to provide the same emotional statement about all the systems this year and not try to support your opinion with some reasoned argument, I still think you are wasting my time.
Have fun with the minus key on this one.....
those were on my list
It's hard to find a center with her
No...you just added them on the list ;)
I see why people have left this blog, because of the behavior from other bloggers that were exhibited. The ignore feature doesn't work because other people quote the bloggers (guilty, sadly). Regardless, I won't post anything else off the topic of tropical weather, and I'm going to ignore every one of the trolls.
I really am getting sick of this blog though...maybe I need a break? (I get that after hurricane season :))
my grand ma always talk about San Ciprian as a small hurricane
am up too 109
emotive?
reason?
cat5?
waste my time?
LOL.... you guys r a joke...
Ophelia:
108. Almost the same.
If it has to be done, it will be done. :)
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