A strange 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:25:GMT den 23. november 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

The Eastern Pacific's late season surprise, Hurricane Kenneth, is falling apart nearly as fast as it intensified. Kenneth, now a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, was a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds yesterday, and was by far the strongest hurricane to appear so late in the year in either the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic Oceans. Kenneth is moving over colder water and into a region with higher wind shear, and will continue to deteriorate over the next few days. Kenneth is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. GOES-West satellite image of Hurricane Kenneth taken at 11 am EST November 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

The 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season: a strange one
Hurricane season officially ends next week on November 30 in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and it is likely that we won't see any more named storms in either basin. It was a strange hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, but in the opposite sense of the Atlantic's strange season. The 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season featured a well below-average number of named storms--eleven (fifteen is average). However, all but one of these storms reached hurricane strength, the highest proportion of hurricanes in a single season ever recorded. Six of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes, double the normal. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. It is common for an Eastern Pacific hurricane season to have fewer named storms than usual during a La Niña year, like this year. It is unusual to have so many hurricanes and intense hurricanes in a La Niña year. The only La Niña years to record so many intense hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific were 1971 and 1985 (six and eight intense hurricanes, respectively.) The strongest Eastern Pacific storm of 2011 was Hurricane Dora, which topped out as a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. The deadliest cyclone was Tropical Depression 12-E, which made landfall near the Mexico/El Salvador border on October 13. At least 105 people died in Central America due to TD 12-E's flooding rains. El Salvador recorded an astonishing 1.51 meters (4.96') of rain in a ten-day period due to TD 12-E and its remnants.


Figure 2. Tracks from the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Friday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 441 - 391

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

441. AussieStorm
03:07:GMT den 26. november 2011
Member Since: september 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
440. bappit
20:52:GMT den 25. november 2011
Interesting pictures of the U.S. from an EPA project in the early 1970's. Now we have roughly 100 million more people.

I noticed the picture of a guy with stacks of soda cans in the walls of his house to provide insulation. I knew someone who tried doing that. Turned out they made great roach motels.
Member Since: mai 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
439. bappit
20:16:GMT den 25. november 2011
Nice site here from Climate Prediction Center to keep up with the droughts. Here is a global map.


More info compiled by Houston-Galveston NWS office is here. Their drought information statement gives details. Current statement is from November 18 and will be updated on Dec. 2.

Member Since: mai 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
438. Seastep
19:48:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Keep watching dem Long range cartoons and one can go right over a cliff ya know?

: )


...all the other kid's with their pumped up Kick's..


Speaking of cartoons. ;)

">
Member Since: september 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
437. AstroHurricane001
18:51:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Keep watching dem Long range cartoons and one can go right over a cliff ya know?

: )


...all the other kid's with their pumped up Kick's..


Oh, how times have changed...Eh, Pat?

Oh'll deyh audeh keets viffs daahr po'ompde auehp keegkz zdey betdah RRAHN RRAHN RRAHN...fesstah daahn mahf booleet

Happy post-Thanksgiving Black Friday to Americans.
Member Since: august 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
436. TropicalAnalystwx13
18:51:GMT den 25. november 2011
Why is everybody posting on this blog? There is a new one.

NEW BLOG
Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
435. AstroHurricane001
18:46:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


I'll try again.

- Depends what you mean by mini ice age. Taking into account the last ice age compared to now, the temperature difference was something around 6c or so (at least in temperate areas, some places had a more drastic drop, others not so much).

- Krakatoa and Pinatubo dropped temps by a degree or two at VEI 6. Krakatoa and certainly Tambora (at VEI 7) caused volcanic winter conditions (some places had average drops of 3c due to Tambora), but this was still quite a way short of a mini ice age. Obviously, ice ages can be a little warmer than the last 'Younger Dryas' one.

- To put in perspective, as well known and powerful Krakatoa was, there have been at least two, if not three more powerful eruptions in just the last millennium (Taupo [Hatepe], Tambora and possibly Changbaishan. There may have been another c.535AD, but this is unverifiable). None of those caused ice age conditions, but the climate must've been wild.

- To cause such a huge drop in temps from now would require some serious volcanism. You're probably looking at a higher end VEI 7 at least, but more likely a VEI 8. Toba was suspected by some to maybe have hastened glacial conditions, though it's disputed. These are for the more 'explosive' (ignimbrite?) eruptions. That said, even Toba may not have done. Did even La Garita?

- Flood basalts are more likely to cause such a drastic change as they tend to pump out more gases which cause these effects (such as LIPs like Iceland; see Siberian, Deccan traps). Outpourings on such a large scale are rare, often with big continental or tectonic rifting. However, it may be more of a cumulative effect as opposed to a sudden change. It may cause similar conditions, but it would be built up over years, maybe even longer.

- Of course, that's all based on a volcanic inducing ice age-esque condition sequence. A 3C drop globally, for example, would be horrible on its own (with all the weird climatic dysfunction on top of that).


Changbai Shan...are you sure? That includes the famous Mt. Baekdu, which recently saw enough increased activity that the two Koreas' vulcanologists collaborated to set up scientific monitoring on the mountain in the past year or two.

(2011, November 2) Korea, Japan to Monitor Volcanic Activity on Mt. Baekdu
Member Since: august 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
434. CybrTeddy
18:14:GMT den 25. november 2011
Seasonal review from me.
2011 - The unusual Atlantic Hurricane season. 11/25/11
Member Since: juli 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
433. Dakster
17:48:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh, definitely. The world would feel it if such a big eruption occurred. It would be difficult to deal with (depending on which volcano went ultra-plinian) at any time, but in times of economic difficulty that we currently endure, it'd be even worse. That's globally, not even just the immediate blast radius.

Of course, for immediate areas, it doesn't have to be so powerful. As Pompeii so graphically shows, it doesn't have to be all powerful to cause unbelievable damage (Vesuvius' eruption of 79 was about a 5). Guess that's why there's specific attention is paid to some volcanoes (though interestingly, Anak Krakatoa is not a decade volcano).

We've been lucky in a way that so far in the Holocene epoch, there hasn't been a truly gigantic eruption. Even the VEI7s have all been in the lower end of that spectrum (100-180km3).

Speaking of large eruptions, a BBC drama depicted the Minoan eruption (Santorini, borderline 6/7) which was aired earlier this year. Think it's on youtube somewhere if someone was so inclined to see it.


Location, Location, Location...

I found the youtube on Minoan eruption, sounds like it was narrated by Leonard Nemoy..

Member Since: mars 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
432. GeoffreyWPB
17:34:GMT den 25. november 2011
For West Palm Beach...Not quite as cool as before, but nice nonetheless...

Member Since: september 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11520
431. GeoffreyWPB
17:31:GMT den 25. november 2011
Member Since: september 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11520
430. Cotillion
17:30:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Dakster:
Thanks Cotillon...

Either way any VEI 7+ will not be good. Definitely not for the immediate area and possible the globe will have some consequences.

Looking at populations in the area, it appears that much larger groups of people now live in the path of these potential eruptions. (not just Tambora and Anak Krakatoa)


Oh, definitely. The world would feel it if such a big eruption occurred. It would be difficult to deal with (depending on which volcano went ultra-plinian) at any time, but in times of economic difficulty that we currently endure, it'd be even worse. That's globally, not even just the immediate blast radius.

Of course, for immediate areas, it doesn't have to be so powerful. As Pompeii so graphically shows, it doesn't have to be all powerful to cause unbelievable damage (Vesuvius' eruption of 79 was about a 5). Guess that's why there's specific attention is paid to some volcanoes (though interestingly, Anak Krakatoa is not a decade volcano).

We've been lucky in a way that so far in the Holocene epoch, there hasn't been a truly gigantic eruption. Even the VEI7s have all been in the lower end of that spectrum (100-180km3).

Speaking of large eruptions, a BBC drama depicted the Minoan eruption (Santorini, borderline 6/7) which was aired earlier this year. Think it's on youtube somewhere if someone was so inclined to see it.
Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
429. Patrap
17:28:GMT den 25. november 2011
Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
428. Patrap
17:26:GMT den 25. november 2011
Keep watching dem Long range cartoons and one can go right over a cliff ya know?

: )


...all the other kid's with their pumped up Kick's..
Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
427. TropicalAnalystwx13
17:23:GMT den 25. november 2011
Nothing like a January tropical cyclone, eh?

Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
426. Patrap
17:20:GMT den 25. november 2011
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
630 am CST Friday Nov 25 2011



Long term...

still have a fairly wide range of solutions for the up coming system to affect the area. Anything from a fast moving open wave which swings a cold front through the County Warning Area by Saturday evening.

On the other end of the spectrum is the European model (ecmwf) which is slower with the boundary and actually cuts off an upper low at the base of the trough near
MS/Alabama and doesnt eject out till later on Tuesday.

For this forecast thinking was to take what seems like the best compromise of these models and so went with the cmc(canadian). It is in the middle of
the two extremes in timing and while it does close off a low it does keep this feature on the move and tracks it out of the area progressively.

Doing this also helps to keep some consistency from
forecast to forecast sent out. Little change made in temperatures through the period but some will be noted in probability of precipitation which may need to be
increased even more.


Should be dry forecast for a few days after this weekend/S system
moves through. Expect below normal temperatures Sunday through probability the rest
of the forecast period.


Meffer


Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
425. CybrTeddy
17:19:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think i like it better when the tropics were more active, lol


You get used to the sudden quiet down of the blog a few seasons in, this is going to be my 7th post-season on WU.
Member Since: juli 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
424. SPLbeater
17:19:GMT den 25. november 2011

98B getting act together:D
Member Since: august 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
423. Patrap
17:18:GMT den 25. november 2011
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Statement
Statement as of 5:57 AM CST on November 25, 2011



The combination of high seasonal tides and moderate onshore winds will produce above normal tides this evening. This may cause minor coastal inundation of low lying areas outside of hurricane protection levees for a few hours around high tide from this evening to just after midnight on Saturday.

The affected areas will be the lowest lying... coastal shell roads and community roads and ditches near the coast.
Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
422. StormTracker2K
17:15:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Patrap:


ESL by LSU



New Loop Current Eddy in the Gulf of Mexico




That's pretty far north Pat. Thanks for sharing!
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
421. SPLbeater
17:14:GMT den 25. november 2011
850mb vorticy becoming more consolidated towards center of 98B. not so stretched out like yesterday
Member Since: august 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
420. SPLbeater
17:09:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

? No it hasn't...Its like this every year.


i think i like it better when the tropics were more active, lol
Member Since: august 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
419. Patrap
17:06:GMT den 25. november 2011


ESL by LSU



New Loop Current Eddy in the Gulf of Mexico


Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
418. Dakster
17:04:GMT den 25. november 2011
Thanks Cotillon...

Either way any VEI 7+ will not be good. Definitely not for the immediate area and possible the globe will have some consequences.

Looking at populations in the area, it appears that much larger groups of people now live in the path of these potential eruptions. (not just Tambora and Anak Krakatoa)
Member Since: mars 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
417. Cotillion
17:04:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah but not showing any immidate unrest, Tambora is. It shows sighns of erupting within a year. If Yellowstone was to pop its top we would have a good couple months warning and maybe even a year's before it actully happens(My guess). We have never seen a super-eruption before so we really do not know what to expect on warning times but with something that massive I would guess there would be fair warning. The catastrophes caused by such an eruption would be unimaginable. World wide startvation, break down of law and order around the world, a every man for himself kind of situation. USA would break down in days if such a thing were to occur.


Tambora has erupted since 1815 and it has been largely small eruptions. It takes a long time to recover all the magma and such that it belched out so destructively two hundred years ago. It's highly probable to be another smaller eruption as opposed to something cataclysmic.
Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
416. TropicalAnalystwx13
17:01:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
this blog has gon to the dogs...

? No it hasn't...Its like this every year.
Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
415. Patrap
16:58:GMT den 25. november 2011




Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
414. SPLbeater
16:57:GMT den 25. november 2011
this blog has gon to the dogs...
Member Since: august 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
412. hurricanehunter27
16:55:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yellowstone is another "HOT POT" in the making of a "big one", we don't know went, but it will be a global catastrophe nevertheless. Yellow stone is Mega-volcano, a sleeping super -giant.
Yah but not showing any immidate unrest, Tambora is. It shows sighns of erupting within a year. If Yellowstone was to pop its top we would have a good couple months warning and maybe even a year's before it actully happens(My guess). We have never seen a super-eruption before so we really do not know what to expect on warning times but with something that massive I would guess there would be fair warning. The catastrophes caused by such an eruption would be unimaginable. World wide startvation, break down of law and order around the world, a every man for himself kind of situation. USA would break down in days if such a thing were to occur.
Member Since: juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
411. Cotillion
16:51:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yellowstone is another "HOT POT" in the making of a "big one", we don't know went, but it will be a global catastrophe nevertheless. Yellow stone is Mega-volcano, a sleeping super -giant.


Yellowstone's got a long time to go (at least the big eruption. It may well have hydrothermal explosions and smaller magmatic ones in the meantime). The last one was 640,000 years ago (low end 8). 650,000 previous to that was the Henry's Fork Caldera.

'course, some think that it's due anytime due to a similar distance of time between the last two. It could go whenever it likes, that's volcanoes. However, the 1.3mya eruption was much less powerful than the one 650k ago (280km3 to 1,000km3 or such). Prior to the 1.3mya eruption, there was a 2.1mya eruption (which was a lot larger). So, looking at a 800,000 year gap at least. This isn't including the Yellowstone hotspot's tendency to drift, meaning there are some occasions of relative non-activity (say the gap between Yellowstone and Heise, which is just over 2 million years).

As the last one was an 8 and it needs time to reload if you will, suspect that it may be quiet for a loooooong time yet. Naturally, we don't understand the big beasts of the volcanic world that well yet.

Taupo, another supervolcano, is much more active.
Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
410. HuracanTaino
16:41:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Dakster:
HH27 --

I will take a look at Tambora too... History tells us that it is not IF another large eruption will occur, but 'when'. The problem with the 'when' is that our individual life time is so short (77 yr. avg), geologically speaking, that you and I have a good chance of missing the next big, global scale, eruption. But it is interesting, nonetheless.
Yellowstone is another "HOT POT" in the making of a "big one", we don't know went, but it will be a global catastrophe nevertheless. Yellow stone is Mega-volcano, a sleeping super -giant.
Member Since: mai 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1007
409. Cotillion
16:33:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Dakster:
HH27 --

I will take a look at Tambora too... History tells us that it is not IF another large eruption will occur, but 'when'. The problem with the 'when' is that our individual life time is so short (77 yr. avg), geologically speaking, that you and I have a good chance of missing the next big, global scale, eruption. But it is interesting, nonetheless.


I'll try again.

- Depends what you mean by mini ice age. Taking into account the last ice age compared to now, the temperature difference was something around 6c or so (at least in temperate areas, some places had a more drastic drop, others not so much).

- Krakatoa and Pinatubo dropped temps by a degree or two at VEI 6. Krakatoa and certainly Tambora (at VEI 7) caused volcanic winter conditions (some places had average drops of 3c due to Tambora), but this was still quite a way short of a mini ice age. Obviously, ice ages can be a little warmer than the last 'Younger Dryas' one.

- To put in perspective, as well known and powerful Krakatoa was, there have been at least two, if not three more powerful eruptions in just the last millennium (Taupo [Hatepe], Tambora and possibly Changbaishan. There may have been another c.535AD, but this is unverifiable). None of those caused ice age conditions, but the climate must've been wild.

- To cause such a huge drop in temps from now would require some serious volcanism. You're probably looking at a higher end VEI 7 at least, but more likely a VEI 8. Toba was suspected by some to maybe have hastened glacial conditions, though it's disputed. These are for the more 'explosive' (ignimbrite?) eruptions. That said, even Toba may not have done. Did even La Garita?

- Flood basalts are more likely to cause such a drastic change as they tend to pump out more gases which cause these effects (such as LIPs like Iceland; see Siberian, Deccan traps). Outpourings on such a large scale are rare, often with big continental or tectonic rifting. However, it may be more of a cumulative effect as opposed to a sudden change. It may cause similar conditions, but it would be built up over years, maybe even longer.

- Of course, that's all based on a volcanic inducing ice age-esque condition sequence. A 3C drop globally, for example, would be horrible on its own (with all the weird climatic dysfunction on top of that).
Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
408. weatherbro
16:32:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

THERE ARE VERY LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE PLAIN STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH WHETHER
THESE FEATURES WILL PHASE AND WHICH PORTION WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THE GFS/NAM/SREF MAKE THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE...WHILE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS PHASE THE SHORTWAVES
AND MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE
ECMWF/UKMET THEN DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF/LOUISIANA REGION ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY SLIDE THE UPPER LOW
EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FINALLY BRINGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/SREF INSTEAD DIG
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...DELAYED THE FRONT AND KEPT IT
WEAKER. FOR TEMPERATURES...BUMPED THEM UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE. IF THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE MUCH
COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.


Given the tellies and the overall setup. I'd Go with the GFS/NAM/SERP or at least a compromise between the Euro/Ukie and those three models above.

If it breaks-off, eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia/upstate north-south Carolina looks to be the spot before moving northeastwards towards Cape Hatteras. The Euro cuts-off the low too far west given the overall synoptics.
Member Since: mai 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1371
407. StormTracker2K
16:18:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh, you're talking about USA weather. I thought you meant tropics.


No problem! GFS does do well with CV systmes I must say.
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
406. Cotillion
16:16:GMT den 25. november 2011
Posts getting eaten again?

Don't you just hate a longish one and it disappears...
Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
405. Dakster
16:14:GMT den 25. november 2011
HH27 --

I will take a look at Tambora too... History tells us that it is not IF another large eruption will occur, but 'when'. The problem with the 'when' is that our individual life time is so short (77 yr. avg), geologically speaking, that you and I have a good chance of missing the next big, global scale, eruption. But it is interesting, nonetheless.
Member Since: mars 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
404. islander101010
16:08:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Just speculating what track would this blob take:

The GFS weakly develops it:
got to watch this area what surprised me keneth headed mostly west this area might have a surprise in store
Member Since: september 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4995
403. TropicalAnalystwx13
16:03:GMT den 25. november 2011
Oh, you're talking about USA weather. I thought you meant tropics.
Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
402. bappit
16:00:GMT den 25. november 2011
.
Member Since: mai 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
401. StormTracker2K
15:47:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:


Yeah I like to take a gander at his Blog every now and then as your right he is one of the best out there.
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
400. hurricanehunter27
15:40:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Blog from earlier this year regarding the GFS.

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary
em>
Kirk Mellish is my local met. I think he is one of the best out there. Glad to see people take a look at his work.
Member Since: juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
399. StormTracker2K
15:37:GMT den 25. november 2011
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
398. GeoffreyWPB
15:37:GMT den 25. november 2011
Miami NWS Discussion

THERE ARE VERY LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE PLAIN STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH WHETHER
THESE FEATURES WILL PHASE AND WHICH PORTION WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THE GFS/NAM/SREF MAKE THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE...WHILE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS PHASE THE SHORTWAVES
AND MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE
ECMWF/UKMET THEN DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF/LOUISIANA REGION ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY SLIDE THE UPPER LOW
EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FINALLY BRINGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/SREF INSTEAD DIG
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...DELAYED THE FRONT AND KEPT IT
WEAKER. FOR TEMPERATURES...BUMPED THEM UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE. IF THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE MUCH
COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.
Member Since: september 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11520
397. StormTracker2K
15:36:GMT den 25. november 2011
This one's for you Aussie.

Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
396. hurricanehunter27
15:35:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Dakster:


Post #328 made me do some research... Sunelipr mentioned it and quoted an article that scientists were warning of an impending eruption.

Although since then further research has led me to believe that Anak is much smaller than Krakatoa and therefore it shouldn't produce as much of a "bang" as Krakatoa did in 1883. Alas, I am no volcanologist so all I can do is sit back, read and watch.

I would not be to worried about this one. The one that I would be worried about is Tambora. It produced the largest eruption ever in more recent time. It also shows high level of unrest with earthquake swarms becoming more intense everyday. If it goes of at the same magnitude as last then were in for a "Year without a summer" type deal. I believe not to long ago they increased the warning levelon the volcano to its highest ever. But keep up to date on Krakatoa, still a very intresting volcano, but i agree with you on the volcano being weaker than its father.
Member Since: juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
395. StormTracker2K
15:32:GMT den 25. november 2011
Blog from earlier this year regarding the GFS.

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary
Storms and computer guidance
By Kirk Mellish


In the end the Canadian and UK models handled the storm system the best. The NAM was OK and the GFS its usual inconsistent mess. The Euro was very consistent but also wrong. We've been looking at this system on the charts since early last week. What's interesting is how the models didn't come into good agreement until the last 24 hours. Normally we see some kind of consensus by 72 hours at the latest.



The other interesting thing is how the structure and nature of the event changed over time. Originally it was projected to be a fairly strait forward Miller A. Then it was to be more of a hybrid Miller A-B driven by cold air daming (CAD or wedge). Then it was to be driven by UL dynamics of the closed low aloft.



At one point last Friday the GFS had the closed upper-level low (ULL) for this morning down in South Georgia. In reality this morning the core of the ULL is near Nashville! This is why we don't just look at a model and make that the forecast.


The north trend in the models each day is why the forecast trended toward more rain and less concern for snow with each passing day.



Early reports so far indicate an inch or so snow in Northern Mississippi, a dusting or so in Northern Alabama, and 3 inches and falling in West and Central Tennessee. Snow in the Georgia Mountains but no problems yet.




Forecast rules of thumb for the rain-snow line: 540 on the 1000-500mb chart, 154 on the 850mb-700mb thickness chart, and 132 on the 1000-850mb thickness chart. Thickness is the Delta between two standard air pressure surfaces and is equivalent to mean virtual temperature of the layer. But as the tutorial post on thermodynamic diagram showed there's more to it than just that.





Looking ahead to next week and beyond, the models diverge wildly and are worlds apart indicating a high atmospheric chaos factor. Therefore, output will be ignored for now.



Based on recent monthly 500mb flow here is the model performance ranking:





Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
394. StormTracker2K
15:25:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What are you talking about? The GFS has performed extraordinarily well this season.


LOL! Yeah right. Maybe you should make a phone call to HPC and the NWS of Melbourne (or any NWS office for that matter) if you disagree.
Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
393. Dakster
15:22:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
One thing I love as much as weather is volcanos and earthquakes, so please explain what brings you to make this post. Earthquake activity?


Post #328 made me do some research... Sunelipr mentioned it and quoted an article that scientists were warning of an impending eruption.

Although since then further research has led me to believe that Anak is much smaller than Krakatoa and therefore it shouldn't produce as much of a "bang" as Krakatoa did in 1883. Alas, I am no volcanologist so all I can do is sit back, read and watch.

Member Since: mars 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
392. StormTracker2K
15:20:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What are you talking about? The GFS has performed extraordinarily well this season.



Really! The Euro & CMC have been the top performers. THe GFS is causing havoc with the local forecast here across the SE US lately and this time is worse than ever. As all of the other models are showing a cut off low while the GFS is showing something completely different even with the system 48 to 72 hours away. Bottomline the GFS has been performing terribly this year as a whole. This is the theme across the SE US today regarding the GFS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011

SUN/MON...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
FASTER WITH A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH MUCH OF THE JET ENERGY
LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS PRODUCES A WEAKENING FRONT THAT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...EVEN FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. BUT THIS SOLUTION HAS BECOME THE OUTLIER
AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS (CANADIAN...UKMET AND EUROPEAN) WHICH
SHOW UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MUCH SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MUCH LATER INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. IN FACT...SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
FOR NOW...HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH HPC. IF THE SLOWER
EUROPEAN MODEL IS CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
STORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT TO REPEAT...THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
391. trunkmonkey
15:17:GMT den 25. november 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Shortcutting? Cheating? Lazy? Sinister? Rotten? Only in the mind of someone who's already determined guilt ahead of time.

Suppose you're asked to go through the mountain of existing temperature data and build some graphs to help verify something someone else created after going through that same mountain. To keep things honest, would you use the time series that were handed to you? Or would you instead select your own time series at random?

No, randomly choosing and cherry-picking are far from the same thing. The former is honest; the second isn't.


My question to Neapolitan, is

Are you justifying the data that Global warming is man made?

Have you profited from government money being directed your way into the study of Global warming?
Member Since: august 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 592

Viewing: 441 - 391

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
18 °F
Overskyet