Aletta's formation in Eastern Pacific ends Earth's 41-day tropical cyclone drought
The first Eastern Pacific tropical storm of the 2012 hurricane season is Tropical Storm Aletta, located about 650 mi south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico. Aletta was named at 03 UTC May 15, right at the official May 15 beginning of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The storm is headed west-northwest away from Mexico, and will not trouble any land areas. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. Aletta will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Tropical Storm Aletta.
Earth's longest tropical storm-free period in at least 70 years
The formation of Aletta ends a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world. According to the UK Met Office, the 41-day period storm-less period is the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years. The last time there were as many as 38 consecutive storm-less days was in 1944. Prior to Aletta, the last tropical storm on the planet was Tropical Storm Daphne in the South Pacific, which dissipated 06 UTC April 3, 2012. April is usually is the quietest month globally for tropical cyclones. The long storm-less period comes in the midst of a very quiet two-year period of global tropical cyclone activity. According to Dr. Ryan Maue, who specializes in tracking global tropical cyclone activity, 2010 and 2011 saw a total of 146 global tropical cyclones--the lowest two-year total since satellite observations began in 1970. The 24-month period April 2010 - March 2012 had 141 global tropical storms, which is also a record low. That's quite a turnaround from 2004 - 2005, which saw near-record high levels of global tropical cyclone activity.
The Atlantic is quiet
The disturbance near the Azores that developed on Saturday, Invest 92L, has weakened and is no longer being tracked by NHC. The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. If something did develop, the most likely location would be along an old frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda, early next week.
Jeff Masters
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"Rainy Season 2012 Underway
The daily cycle of showers and thunderstorms which defines the South Florida rainy season has begun earlier than normal this year. This year’s rainy season started on Tuesday, May 8th which is almost two weeks earlier than the median start date of May 20th and the earliest start since 2003."
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"Ford Motor Co. sold no Focus Electrics for the third straight month"
I think your living in la la land.......
That's a bit premature to say as models clear us out by Friday behind a late season front. So whoever wrote that needs to do the math lol.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE
EFFECT OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAINS
DETACHED OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE
SE US. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREED ON THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A DRIER WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS BOTH MODELS INDICATING THAT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER PARTS OF THE SE US AND
FLORIDA. WITH WINDS A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON THE WEEKEND THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
Yep...Except for the southwestern Atlantic(though even that's ify right now).
Probably worth of 20% at the next TWO.
Good Morning! First of all the models do not clear us out by Friday. We are in the rain for a long time.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012
THURS-FRI...PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 90+KT JET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM COVERAGE A LITTLE LOWER ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE/SOME NVA OVER THE AREA. AM HESITANT TO
SCALE POPS BACK TOO MUCH GIVEN THE TROFFING ALOFT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE...SO FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED 70 POPS THURSDAY THEN POPS IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY. MAXES IN MID/UPPER 80S AND
MINS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
SAT-TUE...00Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF STILL INDICATE A 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTH FL/PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND WITH AREA INFLUENCED BY TROFFINESS
ALOFT/UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
PENINSULA FROM CARIBBEAN. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFICS AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE/SCT CAT DAYTIME AND
ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES
FOR LATE MAY.
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AREAS THAT SEE
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND RECEIVE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.
BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AS WELL AS MOVING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE GULF.
STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTHEAST BACK TOWARD THE COAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TEMPORARY
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL
ON TUESDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
Man that rain is getting close to you.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 525 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
It's raining again.
How unusual.....
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205161137
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922012
EP, 92, 2012051606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 976W, 25, 0, DB
ok I consent:) but it's not just Florida but most of the SE states.
Good question as not only was May dry that year went down as the top 10 driest ever in orlando while 2009 overall was wet but usually El-nino years bring above average rain to FL. May averages 3.50" and many areas yesterday had 2" to 3" and this could be trend everyday this week.
I think what you were seeing was an old forecast because the models didn't start showing this change until Monday night.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012
FLZ028-128-161215-
INLAND TAYLOR FL-COASTAL TAYLOR FL-
729 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY...
* UNTIL 815 AM EDT
AT 728 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEINHATCHEE...OR NEAR HOWELL
PLACE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE KEATON BEACH
MARINE OBSERVATION MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 32 MPH.
ALSO...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
LAT...LON 2970 8350 2973 8357 2975 8357 2976 8360
2981 8360 2989 8365 2991 8337 2989 8335
2982 8335 2982 8332 2978 8332 2975 8334
2967 8336 2967 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 275DEG 11KT 2978 8353
$$
08-LAMERS
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205161137
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922012
EP, 92, 2012051606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 976W, 25, 0, DB
More El Nino Southern Oscillation outlooks
We are in the Neutral phase right now. If we manage to reach El Niño, which there is a high chance we will, it will be when we reach 0.5 °C. We are currently .5 °C lower than that at 0.0 °C.
It's been a long time, bring it on !
Good luck buddy! I sure you will get an A.
wxbro:florida's rainy season is driven by a deep layer SE flow,so troughyness over florida is not usually our rainy season/pattern,actually more driven by high pressure over the bahamas.
Largo:big rains and storm much more likely tonight around midnight- thurs am,im expecting .50-1 inch totals averaged along coastal and inland areas,also a possiblity of some seabreeze storms along the coast movingbquickly inland over the next 4-5 hrs!inland locations expect isolated severe possible today 2-8pm as well
on other not we have purple in the W caribbean
anyway I am out going on a fishing trip before bad weather catches up with us
but before I go I want to say I still think there is a chance for us to have a TD/ weak TS in the caribbean
...SW Atlantic low will cut-off near Cape Hatteras with front still prognosed to stall across Cuba...
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
...Before backing up to Central Florida Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
Tuesday
Wednesday
May 16, 2012 - 13:45 UTC
36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Viewing: 401 - 447
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