Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:07:GMT den 21. mai 2012

+31

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.

Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.

Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)

Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS

Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)

Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.

Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)

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601. weatherh98 02:26:GMT den 22. mai 2012
#ihatetrolls Member Since: juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6280

602. hurricanehunter27 02:26:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting Ameister12: It has always baffled me: Why do we get trolls on a weather blog of all places? It just seems kind of weird to me. =/ Its the internet. Rule number 1 of the internet. If you are on internet and able to get angry they will find you. And they WILL make you angry. Member Since: juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3658

603. blsealevel 02:27:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Plenty of upper atmosphere moisture though Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

605. weatherh98 02:27:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting j2008: Does that......o my.....it does......It says TS 2! And that means Member Since: juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6280

606. WxGeekVA 02:28:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Member Since: september 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3350

608. MississippiWx 02:28:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: when is NOAA going to issue their hurricane forecast? They wait until the end of the season, basically. That way, their numbers are perfect. :-D Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8889

609. trHUrrIXC5MMX 02:28:GMT den 22. mai 2012
to #594 - 600 is that novel necessary? Member Since: april 23, 2011 Posts: 37 Comments: 8485

611. weatherh98 02:29:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: I got banned for that Member Since: juni 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6280

612. trHUrrIXC5MMX 02:29:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting MississippiWx: They wait until the end of the season, basically. That way, their numbers are perfect. :-D well yeah... but I said the hurricane forecast Member Since: april 23, 2011 Posts: 37 Comments: 8485

613. j2008 02:29:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting weatherh98: And that means They say we have Bud, or at least a TS haha... Member Since: desember 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 212

617. hurricanehunter27 02:30:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting weatherh98: I got banned for that Yah but that is only because we like Wx more :D. Edit: But really guys cut this crap out with pictures. I am fine with a meme once and a while but the comment blow me. REALLY? You going to take that much blog space up just to say 1? In the future please refrain from wasting blog space by not posting a picture. We have a 1 button for a reason guys. Edit2: Lol for some reason I cant post the plus sign. This website really needs to update its code. Member Since: juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3658

619. WxGeekVA 02:31:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting weatherh98: I got banned for that ? I was commenting on TD 2E/Bud. I think Admin is too busy with the real trolls than to worry about a post that might be 5% questionable.... Member Since: september 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3350

620. Patrap 02:31:GMT den 22. mai 2012
WP032012 - Tropical Storm THREE Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop ..click image for loop Member Since: juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

621. MississippiWx 02:32:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: well yeah... but I said the hurricane forecast Hehe. I know, I was just being sarcastic because NOAA waits so much longer than everyone else. It's not a bad idea, actually. They get to see atmospheric trends closer to the season. They also get to add storms like Alberto into their numbers. Cheaters, huh? Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8889

624. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:32:GMT den 22. mai 2012
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 ...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 76.5W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

629. hurricanehunter27 02:36:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: Please stop it with the images of plus 1. We have the button for a reason ppl. Member Since: juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3658

632. nigel20 02:37:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 ...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 76.5W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES It (Alberto) was good while it last Member Since: november 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4865

633. sunlinepr 02:37:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Member Since: august 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

635. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:38:GMT den 22. mai 2012
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 101.8W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25929

637. WeatherNerdPR 02:39:GMT den 22. mai 2012
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... 8:00 PM PDT Mon May 21 Location: 9.8�N 101.8�W Max sustained: 35 mph Moving: WNW at 9 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Member Since: juli 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5490

639. j2008 02:40:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 101.8W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES I'm sure the NHC was just too lazy to make a whole new chart and map and update the site graphics so they decided to just reword the update...... JK I'm sure they have a reason that we cant see. Member Since: desember 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 212

640. LostTomorrows 02:42:GMT den 22. mai 2012
I bet that Cool Man named Jason will be the sole reason why the Devils will not win the Stanley Cup this year. Silly troll, go eat a maiden. The only similarities between hockey and hurricanes/tropical weather is in Carolina. That being said, apart from the storm below Cuba, I'm also wondering about the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. The tropics could be running amok early this year, it seems, and the only thing that's going to keep the numbers down is the normally high sheer at this time of year. Member Since: august 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

641. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:42:GMT den 22. mai 2012
bye jason Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 146 Comments: 41277

642. blsealevel 02:44:GMT den 22. mai 2012
I'm going to have to go with this for now though it is looking more promising as wind shear looks to be easing up a bit in that area right now. An area of disturbed weather, associated with a trof of low pressure over the extreme western Gulf of Honduras, is causing showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras, and portions of the W. Caribbean Sea. Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates there may be a very broad cyclonic turning at the surface. However, I am not expecting any development of this area anytime soon, as wind shear in on the order of 20-30 knots over the area. However, 3 of 5 of the Global models indicate development in the western Caribbean in as little as 42-48 hours from 06Z this morning. The GFS does indicate a closed low in about 30 hours, however dissipates it. This could be possible, however I have to rule out this development as of right now, unless the wind shear forecast changes over the next 24 hours or so. This area is currently under the outflow channel from the EPAC system, which does not currently favor development in the area. A more plausible scenario, based on probable reduction in wind shear, and rising pressure heights over the eastern third of the U.S., along with lowering pressures in the Caribbean/BOC would be what the GFS and ECMWF indicate in about 10 days…showing an area of low pressure anywhere from the BOC (Bay of Campeche), to just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

643. allancalderini 02:45:GMT den 22. mai 2012
They didn`t upgrade TD 2 because of this:WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...ALTHOUGH EARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST. THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR...COULD SLOW THE SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CAUSING SHEAR TO DIMINISH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A FAST RATE OF STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS...AND ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AT 48 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. And if everyone see the warning cone now it is expect to make landfall as ts not hurricane. Member Since: Oktober 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2200

644. WxGeekVA 02:51:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Wow, the Wikipedia page is already changed! Anyone on here do it, as I bet some of you may actually be involved in that stuff! Link I finally fixed my citation errors too, I think I'm getting to be a pro at it, LOL! Member Since: september 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3350

647. blsealevel 02:54:GMT den 22. mai 2012
And this is intresting also Member Since: august 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

651. etxwx 03:08:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Explaining uneven rise in sea levels Excerpt: If there is a global warming trend, one of its consequences would a rise in sea levels, which will require massive mitigation efforts to protect coastal infrastructure; rather than a uniform rise in sea level, however, the records show sea levels rising in some areas and dropping in others; Harvard researchers offer an explanation for this phenomenon. Link Member Since: september 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 716

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