Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:07:GMT den 21. mai 2012

+31

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.

Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.

Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)

Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS

Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)

Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.

Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)

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401. wunderkidcayman 23:29:GMT den 21. mai 2012
I say yellow at 7pm either 10% or 20% Member Since: juni 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

402. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:32:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Look at how quickly Tropical Depression Two-E has consolidated and strengthened. This is no tropical depression anymore. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 998.6mb/ 53.0kt Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

403. wunderkidcayman 23:34:GMT den 21. mai 2012
wow blue in the W Caribbean Member Since: juni 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:34:GMT den 21. mai 2012
i know nam is not a tropical model just for reference Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

405. GeoffreyWPB 23:35:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I say yellow at 7pm either 10% or 20% I say nop. A very disorganized mess. Wind shear is howling. Member Since: september 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9117

406. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:35:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: I say nop. A very disorganized mess. Wind shear is howling. I agree. Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

407. gulfbreeze 23:35:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Any chance that td 2e will cross Mexico into the Gulf? Member Since: juni 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 594

408. Ameister12 23:36:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Look at how quickly Tropical Depression Two-E has consolidated and strengthened. This is no tropical depression anymore. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 998.6mb/ 53.0kt Wow 60mph? Yeah it has really organized since the morning. Member Since: august 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3515

409. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:36:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

410. Ameister12 23:38:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting gulfbreeze: Any chance that td 2e will cross Mexico into the Gulf? I don't think so. 02E would be gone by the time it reaches the Gulf. Member Since: august 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3515

411. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:38:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting gulfbreeze: Any chance that td 2e will cross Mexico into the Gulf? It's highly unlikely due to Mexico's mountainous terrain. The 00Z ECMWF did show that solution, however. Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

412. GeoffreyWPB 23:39:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting gulfbreeze: Any chance that td 2e will cross Mexico into the Gulf? No. Member Since: september 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9117

413. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:39:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting Ameister12: Wow 60mph? Yeah it has really organized since the morning. CIMSS ADT is probably too high as usual, but I would bank on a 45 mph tropical storm right now. Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

414. GTcooliebai 23:39:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting gulfbreeze: Any chance that td 2e will cross Mexico into the Gulf? Mexico is a mountainous terrain, so most likely not. Member Since: august 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5170

415. Ameister12 23:40:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: CIMSS ADT is probably too high as usual, but I would bank on a 45 mph tropical storm right now. I agree. 45mph seems much more credible. Member Since: august 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3515

416. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:41:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Tropical Depression Three-W has an eye popping out on visible imagery. This is no tropical depression anymore either. Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

417. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:43:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai: Mexico is a mountainous terrain, so most likely not. Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

418. Ameister12 23:44:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Guam is getting hammered by 03W. Member Since: august 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3515

419. MAweatherboy1 23:44:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Can anybody honestly say they think TS Alberto is stronger than TD2 E right now? Member Since: februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6356

420. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:46:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Can anybody honestly say they think TS Alberto is stronger than TD2 E right now? No, it's probably a tropical depression right now. Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

421. MAweatherboy1 23:47:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting Ameister12: Guam is getting hammered by 03W. Looks like the worst is yet to come too... This thing is blowing up right on top of them Member Since: februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6356

422. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:47:GMT den 21. mai 2012
TXPQ26 KNES 212129 TCSWNP A. 03W (NONAME) B. 21/2032Z C. 12.7N D. 144.3E E. THREE/MTSAT F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED AND HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED WITH DT=2.5 BASED ON 3/10 WHITE BANDING. MET=2.5 AND PAT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON RI. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...SWANSON Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:51:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

424. MAweatherboy1 23:53:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: If that real deep convection can wrap all the way around the storm than that could turn into a monster. Member Since: februar 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6356

425. yqt1001 23:54:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: If that real deep convection can wrap all the way around the storm than that could turn into a monster. It's trying. If it does it will probably be annular as well. Member Since: november 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184

426. Ameister12 23:54:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Can anybody honestly say they think TS Alberto is stronger than TD2 E right now? Wait until next advisory. Alberto will likely be a depression and 02E will likely be Bud (45mph). Member Since: august 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3515

427. cchsweatherman 23:55:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Finally starting to see broad low pressure developing over the Northwest Caribbean this evening. On the latest satellite imagery, you can see broad rotation in the low level clouds over the region as convection continues to build, albeit sheared to the east. Surface observations in the region also confirm gradual lowering of pressures, and with broad cyclonic turning and more convection building, could be indicative of some tropical development in the region. Would not be surprised, if given another day or two, we could see action in this region of the world in the way of an invest or possibly a tropical depression. Member Since: april 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

428. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:56:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Don't know if the page turned or not, but repost. Just wrote a blog! Gone with the wind shear; TD #Two-E a threat to Mexico; Watching the Atlantic Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

429. Hurricanes101 23:57:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting stormpetrol: Yellow circle in GOH at 7CST.? I say no, looks very disorganized to me Member Since: mars 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

430. j2008 23:58:GMT den 21. mai 2012
Quoting cchsweatherman: Finally starting to see broad low pressure developing over the Northwest Caribbean this evening. On the latest satellite imagery, you can see broad rotation in the low level clouds over the region as convection continues to build, albeit sheared to the east. Surface observations in the region also confirm gradual lowering of pressures, and with broad cyclonic turning and more convection building, could be indicative of some tropical development in the region. Would not be surprised, if given another day or two, we could see action in this region of the world in the way of an invest or possibly a tropical depression. I think I will wait to jump on that horse. We need shear to lower alot more or nothings gonna get to significant. Afternoon everyone. I see 2 systems possibly in RI and another on its way to death. Member Since: desember 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 204

431. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:59:GMT den 21. mai 2012
I think some of you are forgetting, and I realize its hard to believe, that we are in the off-season and the National Hurricane Center doesn't release regular Tropical Weather Outlooks at 2PM, 8PM, 2AM, and 8AM EDT. Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

432. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:00:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

433. GTcooliebai 00:03:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I think some of you are forgetting, and I realize its hard to believe, that we are in the off-season and the National Hurricane Center doesn't release regular Tropical Weather Outlooks at 2PM, 8PM, 2AM, and 8AM EDT. And here I am hitting the refresh button on the NOAA NHC website. Thanks for the late notice :-P Member Since: august 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5170

434. aspectre 00:04:GMT den 22. mai 2012
331 uncwhurricane85: Its funny how pilots in Barrow, Ak land in 100 mph white outs, while cont. U.S, Europe, Carib, and S.A flights are cancelled because of a heavy rain storm with 30 mph winds. That's only cuz they know they've been headin' for the 9th Circle of Hell... ...so crashin' beforehand ain't such a big deal. Member Since: august 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

435. wunderkidcayman 00:04:GMT den 22. mai 2012
on the 18Z TWD caribbean...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N88W I agree with upper anticyclone kinda disagree with location of the low Member Since: juni 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

436. stormpetrol 00:07:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Link Check out this link. Member Since: april 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

437. j2008 00:07:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting aspectre: 331 uncwhurricane85: Its funny how pilots in Barrow, Ak land in 100 mph white outs, while cont. U.S, Europe, Carib, and S.A flights are cancelled because of a heavy rain storm with 30 mph winds. That's only cuz they know they're heading for the 9th Circle of Hell, so crashing beforehand ain't such a big deal. LOL dantes inferno reference. Id love a little of that cold weather right now. Its 105 out here!!! I'd take 30 degrees right now in a nice cold glass of DR. Pepper. Member Since: desember 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 204

438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:07:GMT den 22. mai 2012
lots of rocket fuel Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

439. stormpetrol 00:11:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: on the 18Z TWD caribbean...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N88W I agree with upper anticyclone kinda disagree with location of the low Doesn't really matter if it becomes anything, some already experienced devastating flooding just as if a TS had crossed! Should add it does matter we've had enough and don't need anything else! Member Since: april 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

440. Ameister12 00:13:GMT den 22. mai 2012
02E/Bud continues to organize the evening. Member Since: august 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3515

441. 7544 00:14:GMT den 22. mai 2012
looking at that map above its it safe to say the hurricane season has started already ? Member Since: mai 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

442. wunderkidcayman 00:15:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting stormpetrol: Doesn't really matter if it becomes anything, some already experienced devastating flooding just as if a TS had crossed! Should add it does matter we've had enough and don't need anything else! I ain't disagreeing with you Member Since: juni 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

443. wunderkidcayman 00:16:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting 7544: looking at that map above its it safe to say the hurricane season has started already ? yep Member Since: juni 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5406

444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:17:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Member Since: juli 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

445. Cayman2010 00:20:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting stormpetrol: Doesn't really matter if it becomes anything, some already experienced devastating flooding just as if a TS had crossed! Should add it does matter we've had enough and don't need anything else! Looks like the government schools are closed tomorrow. Link Member Since: august 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 77

446. stormpetrol 00:22:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I ain't disagreeing with you Oh I know that, just saying ..... Member Since: april 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6396

447. rhaynes7 00:27:GMT den 22. mai 2012
I've done some historical research and found the last time there were 2 tropical storms before the start of the hurricane season among recorded history was in 1908. If we get Beryl, that record will be tied. Member Since: Oktober 2, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 2

448. KeyWestwx 00:29:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Quoting stormpetrol: Link Check out this link. Member Since: september 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261

449. nigel20 00:29:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Met Office of Jamaica NEWS RELEASE May 21, 2012 at 5:00 p.m. **AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW ALBERTO HANGING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH An Area of Low Pressure is expected to develop southwest of Cuba as the Trough migrates northeastward. The persistent Trough over the western Caribbean drifts further toward the northeast tonight and tomorrow. This could increase the likelihood of shower and thunderstorm activity especially over western parishes tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile… At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Alberto was located near Latitude 30.5 degrees north and Longitude 77.9 degrees west. Alberto is moving toward the east near 13 km/hr. A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with an increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours. Alberto is expected to stay offshore the Georgia and Carolina coasts. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 km/hr with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Alberto could lose its tropical characteristics by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Alberto is not a threat to Jamaica. rar Member Since: november 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments:** 4516

450. Neapolitan 00:30:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Alberto is a TS no longer: AL, 01, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 307N, 771W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALBERTO, S, Member Since: november 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148

451. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:31:GMT den 22. mai 2012
Good bye Tropical Storm Alberto. AL, 01, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 307N, 771W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ Member Since: juli 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

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