Lufthansa jet narrowly avoids crashing in German windstorm
A Lufthansa Airbus A320 with 137 people on board nearly crashed at the Hamburg, Germany airport on Saturday, March 1, as the pilot struggled to land the airplane during high winds kicked up by winter storm "Emma". If you don't have a fear of flying, take at look at the remarkable video an amateur photographer captured of the landing. It's been uploaded to LiveLeak.com and YouTube. As seen in the still images captured from the video (Figure 1), the pilot attempted to land the aircraft with a strong crosswind blowing from right to left. The crosswind is so strong that the drift angle of the aircraft (the difference between where the nose is pointed and the actual track of the airplane along the runway) is about 20 degrees. As the pilot touches the wheels down, he kicks the rudder to straighten the airplane out, and at that moment, a strong gust of wind lifts up the right wing, pushing the left wingtip of the aircraft into the runway. The pilot is skillful and lucky enough to avoid having the airplane cartwheel down the runway and explode, and aborts the landing attempt. You can see the blast of the engines kick up a cloud of dust on the left side of the runway as he goes to full throttle for a "go around" (thanks to Jeff Weber of UNIDATA for making the correct analysis of this dust cloud). The plane landed safely on its second attempt. Do you think the passengers were praying during that second landing? I do! Only minor damage was done to the left wingtip, and the plane was back in service by the next day.
Figure 1. Still photo of the Lufthansa jet (left) as it approached the runway. Note sharp angle between the direction the airplane's nose is pointed, and the track it is taking along the length of the runway. Strong winds of 40 mph gusting to 63 mph were observed at the airport that afternoon. Right photo: the left wingtip of the jet scrapes the runway as a big gust of wind hits. Image credit: LiveLeak.com.
The weather that led to the near disaster
The initial press reports indicated that a wind gust of 155 mph hit the aircraft as it tried to land. That sounded rather dubious to me, so I took a closer look at the weather conditions that day. The only way a wind gust of that magnitude could have been generated would be from a powerful microburst flowing out from the base of a severe thunderstorm. The world record strongest thunderstorm microburst occurred on August 1, 1983, when winds of 149.5 mph were clocked at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington D.C., just five minutes after President Reagan landed there aboard Air Force 1. So, a 155 mph wind gust is possible, but it would be a new world record.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 10:20 GMT Saturday March 1 2008. Winter storm "Emma", a 960 mb low pressure centered north of Hamburg over Norway, has pushed a cold front through Germany. A strong northwest to west-northwest flow of air coming off the North Sea (red arrows) brought sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Hamburg, Germany. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.
Were there severe thunderstorms near Hamburg on March 1 that could have generated such a wind gust? A powerful low pressure system (Emma) with a central pressure of 960 mb passed to the north of Hamburg, Germany that morning, dragging a strong cold front through in the late morning (Figure 2). After cold frontal passage, the wunderground history page for Hamburg at 12:50 GMT, five minutes before the time of the incident, shows sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 56 mph. A temporary wind reading of 40 mph, gusting to 63 mph, also occurred. The temperature was about 45°F, with occasional rain. This is classic post-cold front weather, and is not the sort of environment where severe thunderstorms with strong microbursts occur. Later press reports corrected the 155 mph wind gust, reducing it to 56 mph. Apparently, the aircraft's landing speed was 155 mph. In any case, the plane was operating very near to the maximum crosswinds an Airbus A320 is permitted to land in--38 mph, gusting to 44 mph. There are questions whether air traffic control should have used that runway for landings, and whether or not the pilot should have attempted a landing in those conditions. There is an interesting discussion at the LiveATC.net discussion forum where some pilots weight in on the near-disaster.
Winter storm Emma did considerable damage across Germany. Six people died in weather-related automobile accidents, power was cut to 150,000 homes, and high winds ripped the roof off of a school in Hesse. In neighboring countries, 260 buildings lost their roofs in Poland, flooding collapsed a bridge in Romania, and in the Czech Republic, 92,000 people (about 10 percent of the population) lost power.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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These storms aren't moving anywhere NEAR as fast as the storms this morning over N FL were.
These are crawling at 15mph, compared to the 45-50mph.
Tampa Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
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Eye Temperature: -55C
Surrounding Temperature -75C
E Number - E6.5
Eye Adjustment - 0.0
DT 6.5
MET 5.5
CI based on MET: CI 5.5/102 kts/941 hpa (1 Min sustain)
Google maps of settlements along the coast of Mozambique
Accuweather Forecast
Take a guess.
Version 1
Cyclone Jokwe
Vmax 96knts
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Tampa Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI
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GOM GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) false color
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===============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone 12R [930 hPa] located near 15.1S 41.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts up to 150 knots. The cyclone is reported moving west-southwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24 HRS
Hurricane-Force Winds within 10 NM from the center
Storm-Force Winds within 20 NM from the center
Gale-Force winds within 30 NM from the center
Near Gale-force winds within 40 NM from the center extending up to 50 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
12 HRS: 16.0S 40.0E - 105 knots [CYCLONE Tropicale Intense]]
24 HRS: 17.0S 38.9E - 35 knots [DEPRESSION sur Terre]
48 HRS: 19.6S 38.6E - 40 knots [Tempête Tropicale Moderée]
72 HRS: 21.6S 37.5E - 60 knots [Forte Tempête Tropicale]
Additional Information
========================
Intense Tropical Cyclone Jokwe keeps on intensifying but will probably soon interact with continental surface. This intense midget cyclone with a tiny eye (less than 10 NM in diameter) reacts very quickly to the environment, and undergoes therefore rapid variations of intensity. Landfall on Mozambican coastline is expected this Saturday between 05:00 - 09:00 UTC between the island of Mocambique and the city of Angoche
It is expected to keep on tracking generally southwestward for the next 24 hours before it comes back overseas on a weak stage but with environmental conditions favorable for re-intensification.
MSLP is highter than usual for this intensity stage.
105 knots (10 min)
120 knots (1 min) CATEGORY 4!
Apollo Beach. Still haven't gotten anything yet. The intense red still left on the radar is approaching the extreme southern Hillsborough/Manatee Co. line.
I was looking at an infrared loop of the gulf and boy the line has continued to blow up into the nighttime hours pretty interesting.As of now a tornado watch is up just north of me which does not include miami and broward counties.I suspect that could change in a few hours and the watch might be extended futher south.Adrian
... Snow expected for northeast Louisiana... southeast Arkansas and
central Mississippi...
... Heavy Snow Warning remains in effect until midnight CST
tonight...
A Heavy Snow Warning remains in effect until midnight CST
tonight.
Colder air was spreading east across the region... with snow already
developing over portions of the warned area. Snow will continue to
move east through the afternoon and evening... becoming heavy at
times. Snow will taper off to flurries around midnight. Total
snowfall accumulation of three to five inches remain possible.
A Heavy Snow Warning means snowfall amounts in excess of 2 inches is
likely. Travel conditions may become dangerous. If you must
travel... keep emergency supplies in your vehicle.
Tornado warnings west of Atlanta,G.A.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
807 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 830 PM EST
* AT 802 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TITUSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE...HAULOVER CANAL AND KLONDIKE BEACH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
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