POSSIBLE STRONG NOREASTER COMING AND INVEST 93L ORGANIZING!!!
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ALL GRAPHICS, SATELLITE PICS, STEERING AND MODEL MAPS UPDATE CONSTANTLY AUTOMATICALLY SO COME BACK TO REVIEW THESE GRAPHICS..
Graphic 1
LINK to the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NHC 48HR development Potential....
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Link
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Graphic 2
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NAM Model 60Hrs
Graphic 5
Graphic 6
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Graphic 8
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Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kt storms
Graphic 11
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kt storms
Graphic 12
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb pressure 60-90kt storms
Graphic 13
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kt storms
Graphic 14
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122 kt storms
Graphic 15
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122 kt and larger storms
Graphic 16
Shear Map
Graphic 17
850mb Vorticity
Graphic 18
MJO Forecast
Graphic 19
Pressure Tendency
Graphic 20
Graphic 21
Graphic 22
Seismic Activity Live Link
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Graphic 24
GOES Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates with lots of views
Atlantic Floater 1 Link
INVEST 93L ACTIVE
Atlantic Floater 2 Link
NOT ACTIVE
Atlantic Floater 3 Link
NOT ACTIVE
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NOT ACTIVE
Weather Calculator Link...Weather Calculator Link
LINK to the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Link to my favorite Satellite loop!
GFS LONG RANGE MODEL
Forecast Models
WINDSHEAR 4 DAY FORECAST
National Weather Service River Report Flooding
MJO Forecast from CPC
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2008 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha,Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar,
Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
IN SIMPLE TERMS OVERVIEW: On my blog update on October 30th in spoke of a possible system that could develop in the Carribean. Looks like that possibiltity could become a reality. Also, a strong subtropical system could be forming!
INVEST 93L
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---Invest 93L is located in the SW Carribean. It is currently starting to organize a well defined spin at the surface but, does not appear to have anything closed yet. Many models are now suggesting a depression to form and some have even a Hurricane hitting Cuba. The waters are plenty warm in this area to support a Hurricane when looking at Graphic 21. Most models that have a storm forming take the system NorthWest for a short period and then North with and eventual turn to the NorthEast and out into the Mid Atlantic. If you look at steering maps above use Graphic 11 for now. If you look at Graphic 11 you can see why it would move in the direction i just described as you can see the very large high to 93L's NorthEast. What will cause it to move eventually NE and out into the Atlantic after crossing some of the islands to the North would be the approach of another Cold front coming from the WEST and diving South. If you look at Link to my favorite Satellite loop! you can see the approach of another possible front just hitting the WEST Coast of California. Also look at Grapic 5 to see the Water Vapor of this Front coming. But, its all about timing. How fast will the front get to the EAST coast to pick up 93L and how far North will 93L get before it feels the front. This is still to hard to say but, my best guess is there will be a good chance that 93L does develop and if it does develop into a named storm it would likely feel the High to the NE a little more and move more quickly to the north than models might suggest and possibly get into the Southern part of the GOM. But, its just to early to be certain of any this possibly occuring. One thing is for certain, South America will have some very have rain and either Cuba or other Islands to the North of 93L will have some impact of this developing system. Everyone needs to monitor this possbile developing system.
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---If you look at the loop graphics from 6-8 you can see the start of a Subtropical system starting to form near the NE Bahamas as the developing system should move NNW and become are strong NorEaster. Nearly every major model suggest that a NorEaster goes up the East Coast and becomes very strong. Anyone from South Carolina North should watch for this developing system as it starts to wrap and take shape. Be perpared near the Outer Banks of North Carolina for very strong winds and coastline flooding and coastline erossion.
OTHER INTEREST
IN SIMPLE TERMS:---I do believe we will see at least 1 more named storm this season before coming to an end.
One thing of interest unrelated to weather is my concern of a large Earthquake on the West Coast of the ConUS. If you look at Graphic 22, one can see the activity and the limited activity in that area. I suspect pressures are increasing along the shelf plates from the lack of activity. This is just my personal observation but, just something to watch in the upcoming days or months.
I see nothing else of issue in the next 48 hours.
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour if needed.
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thanks,
Tim...
Sites of other Interest i highly recommend your viewing:
CatastrophicDL's Emergency Preparedness Planning..CatastrophicDL Blog Link
quasigeostropic Hurricane and Weather 101..quasigeostropic Blog Weather 101 Link
KEEP IN MIND ALL GRAPHICS STAY CURRENT ALL TIME AND UPDATE AUTOMATICALLY AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH SOME GRAPHICS ARE NOT BEING USED CURRENTLY, IF SOMETHING WAS TO DEVELOP THEY WOULD BECOME ACTIVE IMMEDIATELY!!
ALL GRAPHICS, SATELLITE PICS, STEERING AND MODEL MAPS UPDATE CONSTANTLY AUTOMATICALLY SO COME BACK TO REVIEW THESE GRAPHICS..
VISTORS LOG SINCE 9-1-08
VISTORS CURRENTLY ONLINE VIEWING.
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Reader Comments
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I noticed a couple earthquakes near PR yesterday. That may be another area to keep an eye on.
Very interesting, a hurricane in the Carribean would certainly be unwelcome news to all the residents of the islands, they have had enough for this year!
Ya i think you might get some swells......be ready......lol
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