304
acus01 kwns 160536
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 160534
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 am CDT Wednesday may 16 2012
Valid 161200z - 171200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern New York and western
New England...
..nern states...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the eastern Great Lakes
today. As the trough approaches New England...thunderstorms will
likely develop this afternoon ahead of a band of strong large-scale
ascent moving into New York. Ahead of the convection...an axis of moderate
instability is forecast from New Jersey north-northeastward into Vermont where
forecast soundings show MLCAPE values reaching the 1000 to 1500 j/kg
range. This along with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots should support
supercell development where the cells remain discrete. However...the
models appear to be developing a line of thunderstorms along a fast
moving cold front moving west to east across the slight risk area
late this afternoon. If supercells develop ahead of the line...then
a large hail threat should exist. The greater threat could be for
damaging wind gusts with a linear convective system. A severe threat
may extend southwestward into eastern PA and New Jersey along the axis of moderate
instability but storm coverage should be very isolated further to
the south.
..ern Carolinas/southeast Georgia/NE Florida...
Southwest flow will remain in place across the eastern Gulf Coast states
and Carolinas today. Model forecasts develop moderate instability
from northern Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas where thunderstorm
development should occur this afternoon. The greatest convective
coverage should exist along sea breeze boundaries where isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur due to steep low-level lapse rates.
The severe threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near
the peak in destabilization.
.Broyles/cohen.. 05/16/2012
Mesoscale Discussion
312
acus11 kwns 160043
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 160042
ncz000-scz000-gaz000-160145-
Mesoscale discussion 0822
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Tuesday may 15 2012
Areas affected...SC...portions of NC...eastern Georgia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...279...
Valid 160042z - 160145z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch
278...279...continues.
Summary...storms will continue to decrease in number and intensity
through the evening hours. Remaining valid portions of severe
thunderstorm watches 278 and 279 will be allowed to expire by the
scheduled expiration times of 01z and 02z...respectively.
Discussion...low-level stabilization owing to convective overturning
and the development of the nocturnal boundary layer will result in
the weakening of ongoing convection during the next couple of hours.
While a few strong storms may remain possible in the near-term as
boundary collisions continue amidst a conditionally unstable air
mass...increasing cinh will yield a diminishing severe threat.
Accordingly...remaining valid portions of ww 278 and ww 279 will be
allowed to expire by the scheduled expiration times of 01z and
02z...respectively.
.Cohen.. 05/16/2012
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...akq...mhx...rah...ilm...rnk...chs...cae...gsp...
ffc...
Latitude...Lon 33057901 32857970 32528091 32078160 32168200 32548225
33438248 33798282 34518347 35168309 35938193 36278038
36357935 36367820 36347761 36207741 35897736 35297795
34897817 34677784 34347755 33827757 33407837 33057901
